OK, so it’s been a while since I last posted. The primary reason being that I have seen nothing but politics as usual from both parties and there has been nothing significant to report. OK, so there have been a couple of things.
1. Barack Obama becomes the first African American to be the Presidential Nominee for a national party in the history of North America.
2. Tim Russert Dies unexpectedly, leaving the world with no one to tell them what to think about politics and current events.
3. George Carlin dies (admittedly expected). I mention him on this blog primarily because he did challenge the first amendment to the supreme court and won. He was also, in large part, a political satirist.
All of these events, it seems, would change the American landscape for generations to come.
In other news, Barack Obama tacks to the center and displays his vast political acumen as he subtly nuances his arguments, triangulates some key conservative issues, and reintroduces himself as a man from humble beginnings with Midwestern values. He is, of course, getting raked across the coals for some of this. Fortunately, John McCain seems unwilling or unable to capitalize on this and is allowing a golden opportunity to slip through his fingers, choosing, instead to focus on non-starters, like disowning surrogates with bad messages and opting out of the public finance system. Regardless of how the media spins things, there will not be any significant news until one or both candidates announce running mates, and then the conventions, where the candidates will most certainly take a back seat to who is chosen to introduce the candidates and their ensuing speeches. The general election will NOT be news. some 70% of Americans are still against the war, some 70 % of Americans thing the economy is heading in the wrong direction. These will be the issues that will drive people to the polls this time around. This election stinks of Dole/Clinton. The old war vet, who has paid his dues and is thus entitled to the spotlight against the young, charismatic agent of change who promises a bright future.
So forgive me as I may not post frequently during these politically unexciting times as I can find no comment to add that will contribute to the public discourse in any meaningful way.
In a state where, once again, Hillary started out with a massive double digit lead in the polls before campaigning began, the expectations game is on. She is back to the two expectations standbys 1. Barack has spent so much money here, if he doesn’t win, it means he can’t close the deal. 2. We don’t need a big margin just a win means we get to go on. Previously, Hillary has kicked Barack’s ass on expectations. He usually tends to play right into this trap by over promising and under delivering. Today, he has a different tone, very clearly saying he will not win. He has decided to let the media define what a win will be. Conventional wisdom seems to be that she needs to win by at least five points, but 10 to put away any controversy. My prediction is Hillary wins by 8 points. The race goes on, but her quasi decisive victory will not be enough to help her in North Carolina or Indiana. Barack will win these two. Shortly after, superdelegates will flood to his side and it will be over. I do not believe that Guam and Montana are going to be races that the party is going to hold their breath waiting to see how it turns out.
First and foremost, I have no problem with Obama’s statements. Seen in the whole context of what he was trying to say, he was really trying to make their case and to make the case as to why he could help them. However, this was a misstep because, firstly, it gives his opponents the opportunity to label him as elitist and secondly, it would have been perhaps better to say this after the primary there.
So, what does he do now? Hit it head on. Say to everyone, “Ok, let’s talk about this then…” Then he proceeds to drag everyone else in the mud with him. ”John McCain says I’m off base when I say that Pennsylvanians are angry. McCain, in all of his straight talk told people in Michigan, the jobs are never coming back. Is this the optimism that he sees for working America? Hillary has amassed over 100 million dollars in personal wealth since her white house days. Do you think she and Bill got that way by going out there and working hard for the middle class or by rubbing elbows with the well-to-do and the influential all over the globe. I, on the other hand, can tell you that the anger is real. The resentment that many feel is out there. They like to say that I am out of touch with middle America. I am here to tell you that I have seen hard times in many different forms all over the place. I have seen the jobs leave, and prices go up, and hard working folk who want nothing more than to provide for their families left no means to provide that meager American dream. My critics are right when they say that I failed to see the optimism of these people. This is because their optimism is being crushed little by little by the weight of a greedy corporate America and administration, after administration that is willing to sell of that optimism for higher stock prices and special interest boondoggles.
I happen to think there is a better way. A future that includes the biggest investment in the middle and lower class since the New Deal. One that includes showing the strength in leadership it takes to say no to trade deals that support globalization at the cost of a big chunk of Americans for whom the Government has no real plan. A future where your leaders won’t tell you to your face that they will help you carve a new path while selling your chances for a better life down the river when you turn your back. Working together, we can find a way to bring the middle class into the 21st century and restore it’s rightful post as the backbone of these great United States. I want to make a deal with you. Going forward I will not make anymore judgement or analysis about the role 0f religion or guns in your life. In a style that I hope that holds true to how I believe politics ought to be, I will also refrain from pretending that I am a great hunter, or for that matter, a good bowler, when I come to your town to talk to you. I won’t try to paint a false image of my connection to your area through rhetoric and anecdotes, only to have it fade quickly away when I’m in another place. Instead, I will let our connection rest in the same brotherhood that connects us all. Our history as a diverse people that share a common bond of an honest work ethic, the vision to make today a little better, and the courage and hope to make a bright future for our children.”
Put it to bed Obama, they got nothing on this issue, you win it pretty handily. You are not associated by marriage to the heiress of a large fortune, nor are you the heir apparent to a political dynasty. You are the closest thing these people have to a candidate who may try to help them. You have no doubt flushed that 3 to 1 spending you have been doing in PA, down the proverbial toilet with these comments. So go to Indiana and convince them that it can all end right here and now.
John McCain, Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama made a pit stop into Capitol Hill, today, from the campaign trail to attend their, uh, jobs. The mostly scarce trio showed up to quiz Petraeus and Crocker on Iraq Progress. It seems they have made as many headlines just for showing up to work as the testimony itsself begging two questions:
1. Have we really gotten so caught up in “Race to the White House 2008″ that we have completely lost focus on the war and it’s short and long term impact on our national interests?
2. Is this really the place for the candidates to come and put on a dog and pony show about how smart and talented, and wise they all are? This day, this testimony needs to highlight how really bad the situation is and how much we need strong leadership, both on the ground and in the office, to correct our course. We do not need three candidates to parade around the capitol throwing around their foreign policy gravitas, stealing the headlines, and pretending that they are not trying to posture themselves as candidates, but instead, working.
Seeing Petraeus being grilled for 10 hours straight about the status of Iraq, my big question is: What is he doing there? One can only imagine that Bush, Cheney, and Gates are sitting back smoking stogies and self-congratulating about their success. Not success in Iraq, but success in hanging Iraq’s successes and failures on a lowly general. Petraeus is the next in a long line of generals to which Bush has shirked his responsibility as commander-in-chief. Not since General George Washington, has one military commander beared so much undue responsibility for handling the politics and public relations of a war in addition of the added burden of, oh I don’t know, the strategy. However, he has no choice, since W’s testimony on capitol hill would be “We’re winnin’”, “We’re makin’ progress”, “We can’t let Al Qaeda win”, and the ever famous “I’ll talk to my generals on the ground and give them what they want.” This is the presidential equivalent of “Go ask your mom and whatever she says goes” It’s all the leadership with none of the responsibility.
That being said…
What is Petraeus’ responsibility in this? My wife says he knows for what he was signing up. She contends that he is a Bushie just like the rest of them and his first duty is to his men. If he were in anything but full agreement it would be his duty to dissent. I believe that as a military man, his duty is to tell the truth and his first duty is to his country. The President is his boss and he has been given a mission by his boss, albeit a political one as much as a military one. I’m not angry with him, but with the President who put him there. I think he is trying his best with what he has to work with. However, if I am wrong, and he is in anyway not being forthright and honest, then his duty to his country would demand that he dissent.
Hillary, today, campaigning in Philadelphia (famed home to fictional character Rocky Balboa) compared herself to Rocky supposing that the Italian Stallion would not have quit halfway up those famous steps. If I could kindly refer you to a post I wrote shortly after Super Tuesday in which I drew a similar comparison. The only difference was that mine was accurate. It is more true now than ever. Much like the movie, the fight dragged on round after grueling round. Rocky throwing some good punches but taking some along the way. All the while the crowd slowly coming around the the challenger who just wouldn’t seem to stay down. No matter how much she tries, Hillary will never, and can never, be Rocky. By definition, you cannot already have been the world heavyweight champion (or co-heavyweight champion in her case) and be the real underdog. I will say that she can be Rocky III where Rocky finds out that Mick has been setting him up with washed up has beens to assure that he would stay the champion. Rocky then teams up with the former champ to find that “eye of the tiger” that he had lost. Hillary having not really run competitive elections for her senate seat now finds herself in the fight of her life against Barack “Clubber Lang” Obama who is young and hungry to beat down the fading champ who is closing in on “past her prime.” I digress…The point is, no matter how good her marketing to the contrary has been, Hillary is still the establishment candidate. She is staying in this race not because she is a spirited fighter with the will to win who will never give up, she is here because her team is spending every bit of political capital it has to convince the public not to throw her out. She has been bullying the press, calling in every favor, manipulating loyalists and top fundraisers, threatening super delegates who may owe any success to the Clintons, and using the prestige of the Oval Office to lend credibility to mud slinging and smear tactics. This doesn’t sound like Rocky to me.later,Rodney
Bill Maher talks with John Cusack about Iraq. He comes off as bitter and impatient while having problems directly answering some of Bill’s pressing questions.
This is pertaining to all these different arguments that Hillary is making about electibility to the superdelegates even though she is losing. 1. She says she has won big states, all of which a democrat needs to win in the general. 2. She says she is winning swing states, all of which a democrat needs to win in the general. 3. She says she is winning in electoral votes, all of which a democrat needs to win in the general. Ok, let me explain this as clearly as possible so as to leave no wiggle room. There are two groups of people in America. Those who like apples and those who prefer oranges. Let’s say, for example, we have a Granny Smith and a Black Delicious apple. Also, we have a Navel orange, you know, just for example. There are some people who really like Granny Smith apples and some who really like Black Delicious apples. None of those people like Navel oranges. For this example, the orange people have already decided that they like Navel oranges the best and they hay-huh-huh-haaate apples to the seedy core. Now that you get the painfully overcomplicated analogy, this is how Hillary’s logic is wrong on all three counts. 1. There are apple fans all across the country. Apple fans would prefer their specific type of apple, but given a choice between any apple and a Navel orange, they will always choose an apple, even if it’s not their favorite type. Oh, they will raise a fuss that their apple is no longer available, but in the end, have you ever tried to make an apple pie with a Navel Orange? 2. When apple people get together to decide on one, and only one apple, they are not voting on oranges. Therefore to say that just because one type of apple does better than the other type with a particular constituency doesn’t mean that the same apple will do better when compared to oranges. 3. There are apple people all over the place, even in predominantly citrus strongholds. Again, in an apples only contest, these people get to vote on their favorite apple even if their vote doesn’t matter when the contest is between apples and oranges. Conversely, to say that you are a stronger apple because you can win in, say, orchards where there are virtually no oranges to be found, is a fallacy because people are only choosing apples at this point. Since they are not choosing between apples and oranges just yet, you have no idea how a Granny Smith would do against a Navel orange. This is especially true considering Black Delicious fans will be majorly teed off if the Granny Smith steals this pie out from under their noses. Considering the Black Delicious has more popular votes, more pledged delegates and more contests won, they may just vote for the Navel Orange out of resentment for what they feel is an overblown sense of entitlement from the Granny Smith. There will be applesauce in the streets… But I digress…The point is, for anyone to say that a contest against apples is any indication of how an apple would do in a contest against oranges is a false analogy and not even sustainable considering that Granny Smiths has the highest negatives, no appeal amongst oranges or, um, well independents, and mainly is seeking to win with a narrow majority of core apple loyalists. laterrodney
A little bragging, on the previous blog, written prior to Friday, I noted how Obama’s campaign was dependent on the help of others and that’s what set it apart… I reminded everyone that Obama had been down and out until ole T.K. endorsed him. No sooner than I hit the publish button, does none other than Bill Richardson endorse Obama and resuscitate the campaign that was looking for a little fresh air. Though I do not believe this is the beginning of some coup de grace for Obama, I do believe he is passing the “Vetting and Testing” test, er… maybe this is the “Patriotic American” test. I lose track. Anyway, his is proving he has the mettle to make this thing work. laterrodney
As news of Obama slipping in the polls begins to surface, we would do well to remember that Obama has been in this position before. After shocking defeats in New Hampshire and Nevada that branded HRC the “Next Comeback Kid” everyone counted Obama as all but dead and Hill as all but crowned. I remember the despair I felt as they talked about the hispanic vote that he would be unable to capture, and how women fell for Hill’s sympathy ploy. Even as Bill Clinton minimized Obama’s campaign as only appealing to black voters, Ted Kennedy’s weighty (no pun intended) endorsement breathed new life into his campaign and propelled Obama to a month long string of victories, a flood of super delegates, a ton of cash, and status of front runner he enjoys today. The lesson here is that Obama has, from the beginning, put the weight of his candidacy on the shoulders of the people, and it was others who helped to light the way when the path was darkest. Hillary chose a path that leans on no one but herself, choosing to make her own opportunities whatever the cost of blood and treasure. The winner of this contest will be the one who comes out the other side on the shoulders of the American people and everything that is good and right with our society, despite who gets the nomination.
